With MLB’s two-day Japanese experiment over, we can start looking forward to the real Opening Day.  Time to make some predictions for the season ahead.  let’s first look at the defending champs and over the next week, we’ll preview all 30 MLB teams.

BOSTON RED SOX

The 2008 Red Sox will look very familiar. The champs everyday lineup remains fully intact with Jacoby Ellsbury assuming the everyday CF job from Coco Crisp. Manny Ramirez will have a big bounceback season-that’s right folks-its a contract year so don’t expect a repeat of his career worst 2007 numbers, 20 HR, with an OPS of .881 compared to career averages of 37 HR and an OPS over 1.0. Do not expect a sophomore slump from Dustin Pedroia who should be an all-star this season. Elsewhere, Jason Varitek will continue his slow offensive decline and Mike Lowell will come back to earth a bit but in the end, this team’s offense will again be among the top 3 in baseball.

Josh Beckett anchors a deep and talented rotation. Dice-K is a good bet to amass over 200 IP and K’s along with improving his victory total and ERA. However, Curt Schilling’s shoulder injury will keep him out until at least the All-Star break and possibly the season making the Sox commitment to keeping Clay Bucholz and Jon Lester under 180 IP each this season a challenge. Durability and experience are also a question over the course of a full season and in the heat of a pennant race. Taking a flier on Bartolo Colon is a low-risk high reward proposition. Overall, the Sox rotation will see a modest decline unless Josh Beckett’s spring injuries linger into the season which is not out of the question considering his injury history.

Jonathon Papelbon is perhaps baseball’s best closer.  The bullpen in front of him is talented and deep including Hideki Okajimi and ever-reliable Mike Timlin. This is the American League’s best unit, without a doubt.

Bottom Line: This team remains one of the elite but is it good enough to be baseball’s first repeat champion since the 99-00 Yankees? Manny and David Ortiz will provide perhaps baseball’s best 1-2 punch but the rotation concerns are real and will be cause for concern all season.  Projected Finish: 94-68

I don’t get it.  Jason Giambi comes out and says MLB shouldn’t have turned a blind eye to steroids, the players, the owners and the league itself.  He says the fans deserve an apology from all the offending parties and the press is taking him to task.  Isn’t this the same press that time and again has asked for the players to come clean, and accused the owners and the league of ignoring the problem and counting their millions reaped from record-breaking crowds and lucrative TV deals.  What a bunch of self-righteous hypocrites. 

Sure, Giambi was on the juice and now there are rumors he’s used greenies.  The guy wants to begin clearing his conscience and now we villify him for it.  If he calls out specific people, the media will call him a gutless sellout.  So he doesn’t and they criticize him for that.  Give me a break.  The man is never supposed to speak on the topic again?  What if the quote had come from Mark McGwire or Curt Schilling?   I have no doubt the media would have cheered McGwire for "coming clean"  and Schilling for being the "pulse of fans."  But not Giambi.    Only the media and their favorite players are allowed to be candid on steroids.

They’re at it again.  Just over a week into the season and ESPN is already showing their blatant worship of the Yankees.  In their latest power rankings, http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/powerranking?season=2007&week=2&lpos=spotlight&lid=tab5pos1, posted yesterday morning the Yanks at 4-4, (now 4-5) are holding down the second spot behind the Mets.  Now I know these rankings are generally complete **** and there are certainly other problems with the rankings like how the Mets are ranked first after losing two of three to the first place Braves, but seriously, how does ESPN call itself credible sports journalism when it publishes this garbage.  So far the Yanks have played three games each against the Rays, O’s and Twins.   Four wins, two healthy starters and a team ERA ranking 23rd in the league.  A-Rod’s on fire, so what-they have four wins.  ESPN-the People Magazine of Sports Reporting.

Owners enjoyed another year of record attendance, passing the 75 million mark for the first time in 2006.  And to commemorate their success, they went on a serious spending spree this winter.  You had to figure the Yankees would up the ante and leave the rest of baseball in the dust after another early October exit.  But with revenue sharing helping to spread the wealth, every GM thinks they have the cash to join the party.  With that in mind, here’s a look at the worst deals this offseason.  And the winner is…

Gold Medal-Kansas City Royals

What is a small-market squad thinking giving Gil Meche a five year-$55 million deal?  At 28, the good news is he’s about to enter his prime and scouts like his arm coming off 2006, his best season to date.  The bad news is his career year brought just 11 wins and a 4.48 ERA in 186 innings pitched.  At best, that’s  #4 starter production. 

Silver Medal-Seattle Mariners

For signing Miguel Batista to a three year-$24 million contract.  For the bargain basement price of 8 million a season, the Mariners are getting a pitcher who boasts a career record of 68-79 with a 4.46 ERA.  And at 36, I’m not sure what’s a better bet, that Batista will continue to put up pedestrian numbers or that the M’s will spend the next three years out of contention wondering why they tied up $24 million in this guy. 

Bronze Medal-San Francisco Giants

Dave Roberts must have one **** of an agent.  A 36 year old career 4th outfielder, the Giants inked Roberts to a 3 year-$18 million deal.  Roberts offers little except for great speed out of the leadoff spot.  But he’s a  career .270 hitter who has never walked 50 times in a season.  As the old saying goes, you can’t steal first.   

There was no shortage of bad deals made by owners and GM’s this offseason. but at least now we’ve reached a point where every team has enough financial flexibility to overpay for past-their-prime free agents or project young players who will never fulfill their potential. 

Check back in a few days to see a few GM’s who bucked the trend this winter and spent wisely on free agents.

Normally you could chalk up the “Todd Helton to the Red Sox” rumor as nothing more than a pipe-dream generated by the overzealous Red Sox propaganda machine and its kool-aid drinking lackies in the local press. But not this time. In a story broken by the Denver Post, the Rockies have acknowledged that they are considering a deal with the Sox involving 3B Mike Lowell, reliever Julian Taveraz and relief prospects Craig Hansen and Manny Delcarmen.

While it’s true that the Rockies haven’t gotten 16 million dollars worth of production over the last two years, Helton still posted a .930 OPS and averaged 80 RBIs on a losing team. Dealing him for spare parts and a relief prospect is downright ludicrous, not to mention paying half of the $91 million remaining on his 6-year deal. With a team stacked full of up and coming 20-something position players, the Rockies have a legitimate chance of competing in the mediocre N.L. West, if not this season, then definitely soon after. Garret Atkins and Matt Holiday may not be household names yet outside of Colorado but last season, both emerged as legitimate middle-of-the-order mashers. As always, there are more questions than answers in the Rockies starting rotation, but this deal wouldn’t even bring a starting pitching prospect.

I’m not sure who is crazier, Colorado owner Charlie Monfort, who is willing to pay somebody $45 million to take Helton off his hands in exchange for a couple relief prospects and some spare parts or the Red Sox for their reluctance to pull the trigger. This isn’t to criticize the players involved from Boston. Lowell has a nice glove at 3B and some pop in his bat; Delcarmen and Hansen are both good prospects with excellent stuff and Taveraz can be a useful option out of the pen in spite of his occasional emotional outbursts. But these guys do not comprise anywhere near equal value for the face of your franchise who has never hit below .300 in a full season and averaged about 30 homers and 100 RBI’s over his career in Denver. Are some of those numbers inflated by the thin air at Coors Field? Definitely, but even so, Helton is going to get on base about 40% of the time and at worst be among the league leaders in doubles no matter where he calls home. I’m sure a February surrender isn’t exactly going to help bring back a restless Rockies fan base who expected to have a shot at competing in 2007.

If you’re the Red Sox, how can you pass up this trade? The Sox can easily accommodate Helton by shifting Kevin Youkillis back to his original 3B position and plugging Helton in at 1st. Taveraz’s production can likely be replicated with an in-house option or at a reasonable cost on the open market and it’s not like the Sox have shown any hesitation in spending money to improve this winter. Sure, giving up a reliever of Delcarmen or Hansen’s potential in an already leaky pen isn’t easy. But neither one is likely to emerge as a shutdown closer this season and Boston has done an excellent job of grooming a stable of quality young arms to fill out the pen in future seasons.

Imagine adding Helton’s production and patience to a lineup already among the league’s best. With a chance to compete for a World Series and the motivation to prove his Coors Field critics wrong, Helton could make a big impact in Boston. How can Theo Epstein and Co. pass up the opportunity to rip off another small-market team without the financial wherewithal to absorb a rich long-term contract? Maybe the Sox are holding out hope that Colorado will settle for just one of their blue-chip relief prospects and who can blame them for being a little greedy. With the Rockies waving the white flag in February, the Sox will come out of this deal smelling another October run.

Thanks to the dearth of marquis arms available, GM’s are handing out around $8 million a season for average starting pitchers, making the Phillies acquisition of Freddy Garcia a major coup for next season. Garcia at 30 years old, a known commodity in the prime of his career who should give the Phillies at worst 15 wins, a 4.00 ERA and 200 IP for 2007 at the now “reasonable cost” of $10 million next season. Sounds like a bargain when compared to the 3 year, $24 million contract the Phils had to hand out to get Adam Eaton, who is only a year younger and has never won a dozen games in a season, thrown 200 innings or posted an ERA under 4.00.

The Phillies gave up a blue chip prospect in 21 year-old lefty Gio Gonzalez, who was drafted by the Sox in 2004 and a major part of the deal that brought Jim Thome to Chicago. Obviously, the Sox are high on him if they’re willing to give up a pitcher of Garcia’s caliber to reacquire him. Philadelphia fans might also remember Gavin Floyd, the other minor leaguer included in the deal. He was the “next big thing in Philly” a few years ago but he has struggled with control problems and may never have realized his potential without a change of scenery. Neither will be expected to contribute immediately in Chicago and should have a chance to develop in the minors without the pressure of being labeled as saviors for an underachieving pitching staff.

The downside of the deal for the Phillies of course is that Garcia is only signed through next season. The Phils will face stiff competition and a hefty price tag to resign him so the pressure will be on to make the playoffs next season. No doubt, Garcia’s history of pitching well under the bright lights was a major reason the Phils moved aggressively to get him. He ptiched some of his best games of the season last year with the Sox fighting for their playoff lives and threw three gems in the 2004 playoffs, capping it off with seven innings of shutout ball in the Game 4 clincher.

Speaking of postseason standouts, the Yankees finally added a big name this offseason, by bringing back Andy Petttitte with a one-year $16 million deal. Sure, it’s a little pricey for the 34-year old lefty but after two straight seasons of outright collapses in the playoffs, New York rightfully jumped at the opportunity to reacquire a proven playoff performer who can handle the bright lights of the Bronx. But regardless of what he does during the regular, the success of this move will be determined by how he pitches in October. And now of course, we can cue the Clemens to NY rumors, even though that decision is probably at least 3 months and $20 million away from being resolved.

Christmas is coming early for the 2006 free agent class. With general managers gathered to do a little holiday shopping at the winter meetings in Orlando, a number of players have already cashed in on this year’s free-agent frenzy.

The N.L. West is finally starting to make some noise with the Dodgers letting Greg Maddux move South to San Diego for a one-year $10 million deal and replacing him with 33 year old former San Fran ace, Jason Schmidt with a three year $47 million contract. This looks like a decent move for the Dodgers who seem to be turning over half their roster this offseason. Adding Schmidt to the fold won’t generate the headlines that the now-dead rumor of a blockbuster deal for Manny Ramirez would have but trading disgruntled Brad Penny for a bat appears much more likely at this point. Schmidt has had a few arm problems in the past and is probably far removed from putting up the kind of numbers that made him a Cy Young contender in 2003 and 2004 but 200 IP, 15 wins and 180 K’s seems well within his reach. The thing is, while Maddux can’t overpower hitters like Schmidt, he will likely match him in wins and innings pitched at $7 million less this season but in the mediocre N.L. West, Schmidt could be a difference maker.

Padres fans have to love this move. Sure, $10 million is a little steep, but not outrageous considering this market. Maddux definitely looked reinvigorated after moving West last season and playing half his games in pitcher friendly Petco Park will probably only improve his numbers. This is a great move for the Padres. Maddux will share his wealth of knowledge with San Diego’s young staff and help them take the next step as Kenny Rogers did for the Tigers last season.

On the East Coast, the Red Sox continue to be a major player this offseason inking both J.D. Drew and Julio Lugo for 5 years and $70 million and 4 years and $36 million, respectively. No one doubts Drew’s ability to swing the stick but questions about his desire and injury history have dogged him his entire career. Bitter fans in Philly, St. Louis, Atlanta, LA here’s your chance to say your peace. Under the microscope in Boston definitely seems like an odd choice for Drew even with the big payday. Without a strong start, the boo birds will be out early and often in Beantown.

Lugo will replace defensive wizard and automatic out Alex Gonzalez at shortstop and likely hit leadoff in a lineup that could rival the Yankees with Manny seemingly off the market and Drew, at least on paper an offensive upgrade over Trot Nixon. How will these moves affect the race in the hyper-competitive A.L. East? If nothing else, the Sox have proven to everyone that the Yanks are no longer the only Evil Empire on the block.

With former Tigers lefty specialist Jamie Walker and righty Danys Baez already in the fold for the next three years, the Orioles are also now said to be close to signing Scott Williamson along with submariner Chad Bradford.  The quartet will cost the O’s about $12 million next season.

After being shut out on a number of big name free agents over the past few years, perhaps the O’s brass is taking a new approach.  Bolstering the bullpen will not make the front page splash that signing a Zito or Schmidt would but it may be the quickest and most cost effective way to improve the team for next season. 

The O’s also hope to have John Parish return healthy after missing all of last season following Tommy John surgery, giving them five reliable arms in front of Chris Ray.  Unless they plan to have the shaky Baez close games, it seems very unlikely that the O’s will move Ray unless it’s part of a major multi-player deal.  Considering Peter Angelos’s track record of putting the kibosh on any blockbuster trades, that seems like a longshot.   

After making a deal with the Yankees to acquire Jaret Wright at $3 million for next season, the Orioles appear to have the makings of a solid rotation.  Erik Bedard emerged last season as a legitimate frontline starter and if Daniel Cabrera and Adam Loewen can harness their impressive potential under pitching guru Leo Mazzone, the O’s will no longer be a doormat in the AL East. 

They remain in the market for a slugger to man left field or first base and there are still lingering questions about the happiness of Miguel Tejada but this team looks to finally be headed in the right direction.  A strong bullpen in front of Chris Ray will ease the pressure on the O’s young rotation and should set the stage for a major improvement in 2007.

The money being thrown around this offseason is getting crazier every day.  The Cubs are reportedly are going to give Alfornso Soriano $135 million for eight years.  I’m not sure what other offers were out there but I have to wonder if the Cubs were bidding against themselves here.   Soriano did put up a career year in 2006, putting up 46 homers, 41 SB and an OPS of .911.  He also agreed to play the outfield for the Nationals and repeatedly stated his desire to remain in Washington, turning around what was once a so-so clubhouse reputation. 

Does this move make the Cubs an immediate contender with the parts they have returning?  Adding Soriano at the top of the lineup with Lee and Ramirez in the middle will provide a big boost to last year’s anemic offense.  At thirty years old, you have to wonder about the wisdom of giving Soriano an eight year contract.  No doubt, he should make the biggest impact of any free agent on the market but at $17 million a season, is it really worth it?  Cubs ownership has a history of pinching pennies.  With Pinella’s arrival, they seem eager to shed that lable, maybe a little over eager from my perspective.  This is a team that lost 96 games last year.  For all the acquisitions they’ve made this season, you still have a rotation full of question marks outside of Carlos Zambrano.  Maybe this gets them in Wild Card contention next year but much more needs to be done before considering them a legitimate contender.